Ukraine GDP +4.5-4.8% in 4Q16

Ukraine GDP +4.5-4.8% in 4Q16

Ukraine GDP grew 4.5-4.8% in 4Q16, Statistic Service provisional report

Ukraine’s GDP increased 4.5-4.8% yoy in 4Q16, reported Igor Verner, Head of State Statistics Service at the Cabinet meeting on Feb. 8, according to Interfax-Ukraine news agency. The number was estimated based on the results of the core sectors of economy. The IMF anticipated 1.5% GDP growth in Ukraine in 2016. Recently, Economy Ministry estimated 2.0% GDP growth in 2016.

Alexander Paraschiy: The reported number is far above our expectations. We estimated an 1.5% yoy increase through the quarter. An upsurge in agro-production in December (+66% yoy) due to harvesting statistics is the main suspect driving this GDP increase. Such a 4Q16 result means the year-end GDP growth might even be above 2.0%.

For 2017, our view remains unchanged. The factors which improved the fourth quarter performance look temporary. In the meantime, external demand, as the main driver for growth, remains sluggish. We project +2.1% yoy GDP growth in 2017.

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